Forecast Discussion
The North Carolina Division of Air Quality issues forecasts for fine particulate matter year-round and ozone from March through October. Forecasts and discussions are updated each afternoon for the next three days, and are sometimes updated in the morning to reflect the latest ambient conditions.
This forecast was issued on Saturday, May 18, 2024 at 1:27 pm.
This forecast is currently valid.
Today's Air Quality Conditions
Current daily average fine particulate concentrations are in the low Code Yellow range near the Sandhills Region/Montgomery County area thus far today, with Code Green conditions elsewhere. Ozone concentrations are Code Green statewide today.
For a display of the most recent Air Quality Index (AQI) conditions throughout the day, visit the Ambient Information Reporter (AIR) tool.
General Forecast Discussion
On Sunday morning, surface high pressure will nose in from the northeast as the low moves offshore, dragging a cold front down across the state. Aloft, a very positively tilted trough axis swings through and with enough moisture and PVA to possibly generate some additional precipitation as the system moves offshore. Expect both ozone and fine particulate levels in the Code Green range Sunday.
Outlook
Monday, heights rise again as an elongated upper ridge moves in from the northwest and high pressure continues to settle in from the northeast. NNE surface flow will deliver a relatively clean air mass to the region, and fine particulates will likely hold in the upper Code Green range. It’s looking like cloud cover will be less than previous guidance suggested, so have included the possibility of low Code Yellow ozone in the Charlotte area and ridge tops on Monday.
Tuesday, surface high pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic coast will drift southward, with North Carolina receiving maritime-sourced onshore return flow in the afternoon/evening. Further inland, ozone could reach into the low Code Yellow range near the Charlotte, Fayetteville, and Triangle metro areas and the ridge tops. Particle pollution may begin to build into the low Code Yellow range in the southwestern Piedmont.
Tuesday, surface high pressure centered near the Mid Atlantic coast will drift southward, with North Carolina receiving maritime-sourced onshore return flow in the afternoon/evening. Further inland, ozone could reach into the low Code Yellow range near the Charlotte, Fayetteville, and Triangle metro areas and the ridge tops. Particle pollution may begin to build into the low Code Yellow range in the southwestern Piedmont.
Extended Air Quality Outlook
The forecast Air Quality Index value for each pollutant represents the highest value expected within each county, so some areas and monitors may see lower values. We use the best information and techniques available to ensure the quality and accuracy of the forecasts we provide to the public. Note that ranges do not include the nine-county Triad region, which is covered by the Forsyth County Office of Environmental Assistance and Protection.
Forecast Day
AQI Range
Category Range
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North Ridges
South Ridges
(Elevation > 4,000 feet)